For decades, improving the accuracy of track forecasts for dangerous hurricanes like Isaias plodded along at a slow and steady pace. Improvement in intensity forecasting was even slower.

Hurricane Simon was headed toward part of Mexico’s Pacific coast Friday and forecast to get much stronger. U.S. forecasters issued a hurricane warning for parts of the central and southwest coast, where hurricane-force winds were expected within 36 hours.

The National Hurricane Center's 5 p.m. Saturday update reported that Category 1 Hurricane Isaias is 5 miles west of Birmingham, Alabama and 180 miles south of Nashville Tennessee. The hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph, is moving north-northeast at 15 mph.

Sustained winds are considered “damaging” when they reach 50 knots, or 58 m.p.h., and can start to break tree limbs and tear off roof shingles. More widespread damage occurs as winds reach and exceed hurricane force, which is 74 m.p.h.

The USA TODAY Network livestreamed meteorologist Dr. Ryan Truchelut's Thursday evening forecast for Hurricane Isaias.

Article first published: Friday, Oct. 9, 2026, 5 a.m. ET

The director, Michael Brennan, oversees 45 federal workers, including hurricane specialists and meteorologists.

Hurricane Isaias developed late Wednesday as the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026. Its development this late in the year tied a historical record.

Isaias is expected to meander east in the Gulf before taking a northeasterly turn and will likely rapidly intensify, according to the NHC. The storm is expected to make landfall early Saturday morning as a hurricane with winds of 105 mph.