Mark M. Spiegel, senior policy adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, shared views on the current economy and the outlook from the Economic Research Department as of February 26, 2026.

AI adoption and use are still evolving, and the technology itself is changing rapidly. What we know about AI and its impact ...

The large increase and subsequent decline of unauthorized immigrant workers in recent years have raised questions about the impact of these changes on local labor markets across the United States. New ...

This paper examines the evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) patent rates (i.e., the number of AI patents/number of firms of the same type) and concentration metrics (i.e., the ...

Recent research suggests that generic large language models (LLMs) can match the accuracy of traditional methods when forecasting macroeconomic variables in pseudo out-of-sample settings generated via ...

In 2024, the San Francisco Fed and the Federal Reserve System Innovation Office launched the EmergingTech Economic Research Network (EERN) to support a better ...

Using administrative data from France, we document that within the same detailed occupation, industry, and commuting zone, workers who work from home earn on average 12% higher hourly wages than fully ...