Tariffs pose rising inflation and rate cut risks for H2 2025 as CPI data hints at early price pressures in key goods. See why markets may be underpricing this threat.

Inflation rose last month to its highest level since February as President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs push up the cost of a range of goods, including furniture, clothing, and large appliances.

Meanwhile, export trends are likely to be erratic: a short-term surge in shipments as firms race to beat new tariffs, followed by potential declines if trade barriers persist. Canada's strategic pivot to the Indo-Pacific, however, offers hope for exporters seeking new markets beyond the U.S.

In a research note, Deutsche Bank analysts contradicted the White House’s assertions that foreign exporters are on the hook for Trump’s tariffs.

While generally saying the labor market remains solid and inflation elevated but showing progress toward the Fed’s 2% annual target, the minutes reflect a mixed assessment of whether the tariffs will spur inflation or be more of a one-time hit that will not lead to higher long-term price increases.

Price inflation is moving up again, in spite of President Trump's repeated (and false) claims that prices are falling. Tariffs, though, are not inflationary.

Major U.S. corporations and trading partners are scrambling to adapt to a new global economy, even as President Donald Trump mulls the imposition of historic tariffs in less than two weeks.

Predictions from mainstream economists were dire after President Donald Trump launched his tariff campaign just a couple weeks after he began his second term in office: Prices would rise — sharply — they said,

The food-and-snack maker’s CEO Sean Connolly said tariff-related costs could add more than $200 million annually to the company’s cost of goods sold.

The Labor Department reported Wednesday that its producer price index was unchanged last month from May after rising 0.3% the previous month. June wholesale prices rose 2.3% from a year earlier, the smallest year-over-year gain since September. Both measures came in below what economists had expected.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.3% on Wednesday, June 11, as investors weighed softer-than-expected inflation data and progress on U.S.-China trade talks.