For instance, Smith just ordered a $515,000 machine from Germany that grinds his knife blades to a sharp edge. Trump had imposed a 10% tax on products from the EU that is set to rise to 15% under the trade framework he announced Sunday. So Trump’s tax on the machine comes to $77,250 — about enough for Smith to hire an entry-level worker.

Tuesday's analysis warns of economic and political costs, especially in swing states with significant manufacturing sectors, like Michigan and Wisconsin.

As President Donald Trump prepares to announce new tariff increases, the costs of his policies are starting to come into focus for a domestic manufacturing sector that depends on global supply chains,